منابع مشابه
Why hindsight can damage foresight
WHAT IS HINDSIGHT BIAS? In 1972, President Richard Nixon made a historic trip to China, which had become virtually a closed country following the 1949 revolution. There was intense speculation on what Nixon might achieve. In a now-famous study, Baruch Fischhoff and Ruth Beyth (1975) asked their students to estimate probabilities for events relating to his visit. An example: “The USA will establ...
متن کاملEvolving judgments of terror risks: foresight, hindsight, and emotion.
The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing...
متن کاملoutputs Turning hindsight into foresight - our search for the
This paper tells the story of work using Systems thinking to study failure. It describes the methodological developments that have taken place in this area at the Open University and looks at how the emphasis has shifted from the examination of past failures to the prediction and prevention of future failures and the facilitation of organisational learning through the analysis of failures. It e...
متن کاملCan Causal Sense-Making Benefit Foresight, Rather than Biasing Hindsight?
Upon reading headlines like “Traffic Fatalities Increased/Decreased Last Year,” people often overestimate how well they would have anticipated changes. This hindsight bias has been linked to causal sensemaking that minimizes one’s feeling of surprise after learning an outcome. In this paper, we consider whether the sensemaking process, which contributes to bias in hindsight, could be recruited ...
متن کاملDrugs foresight 2020: a Delphi expert panel study
BACKGROUND Historically substance misuse has been relatively common in western countries, but comparatively few Finns report drug use. The Drugs 2020 study aimed at foreseeing changes in the drug situation in Finland by the year 2020. METHODS The Delphi method was used, utilizing drug experts of the EU national network in Finland. RESULTS Marked growth was foreseen in drug use, especially i...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: American Journal of Public Health
سال: 1975
ISSN: 0090-0036,1541-0048
DOI: 10.2105/ajph.65.4.411-a